Monday, December 13, 2010

Stocks good for now - huge decline eventually

MarketWatch :  Aden Forecast expects eventual hyperinflationary collapse.

However they note the Federal Reserve's ability to stave off catastrophe, in the short term.

“It's important to remember that the markets lead. They look ahead. They're not reacting to what's currently happening, but to what lies ahead and for now they're telling us that better times are coming.”

“Also important, the markets usually take a more near-term view, looking out to the next few quarters or so. And they often don't focus on the underlying fundamentals, especially when it comes to the very long mega trends, which overpower the near-term trends. But megatrends take years or decades to evolve. In the meantime, other factors will come to center stage, as we're currently seeing [with Fed stimulation]”.

Right now Aden thinks near-term trends are positive for stocks :
“This positive action will be further reinforced if the Dow Jones Industrials also reaches a new high by rising and staying above 11,440”.

However Aden see signs of the megatrend impacting bonds :
“Bond investors are seeing inflation ahead and there's a good chance the bond bubble is coming to an end”.

Aden thinks the megatrend has definitely arrived for Gold :
“The gold price is incredibly strong above $1,340 and as long as it stays above this level, we could see higher prices. A decline to the $1,300 level would take the froth out of the rise, but even then it would only be an 8% decline. The point is, a 10-15% correction would actually be healthy, but times are not normal and we must watch it closely.”

Their forecast for stocks in the longer term are bleak :
“We expect gold to continue higher in the years ahead as its mega rise evolves, stocks probably won't. At some point, we suspect the rise will stall and it's quite possible that the sideways action since 2000 could end up being a big top that precedes a huge stock market decline.

Time will tell. But this is a scenario that cannot be ruled out considering the big picture fundamentals, like the debt load and its repercussions in the years ahead.”

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